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Don't Panic Over Microsoft: These 2 Mega-Cap Stocks Are the Real Opportunity

Key Points

  • Microsoft’s cloud business doesn’t have the same advantages as Alphabet and Amazon’s cloud units.

  • Alphabet has the most complete stack of products and services of any AI company.

  • Amazon has developed both custom AI accelerators and CPUs, setting it up well for the future.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Alphabet ›

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) shares are down around 20% to start the year, as of this writing. The company was caught up in worries about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies and over its AI infrastructure spending.

While Microsoft’s enterprise software business should largely be protected from AI disruption, given how ingrained it is, and its cloud computing is growing fast and has big commitments from OpenAI, it’s not the best opportunity in the cloud space, in my view.

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The reason is that the company has neither a top AI model nor top-tier custom AI chips, which leaves it at a disadvantage. Microsoft was smart to invest and team up with OpenAI at the start of the AI boom, but its reliance on its models has also set it back a bit. Meanwhile, it is still very early in the process of developing custom AI chips, and remains behind in this area, as well.

Instead, the better opportunity in the market right now is with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) as well as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Here’s why.

Person tracks investments on a desktop computer.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Alphabet: The complete AI package

While only the third-largest cloud computing provider, Alphabet is arguably the best positioned moving forward. The company’s biggest advantage is that it has developed the best custom AI chips, called tensor processing units (TPUs), which give it a huge cost advantage.

With the help of Broadcom, Alphabet developed its TPUs more than a decade ago and has optimized its entire hardware and software stack around these chips. Now in their seventh generation, its TPUs are battle-tested, given that Alphabet has run most of its internal workflows and trained its highly regarded Gemini foundational large language model (LLM) using these chips.

In addition to the cost savings the company gets from AI model training and running inference with its own chips, Alphabet is also set to benefit from customers deploying its chips, both within Google Cloud and in their own data centers. For example, Anthropic has already placed a $21 billion TPU order through Broadcom to be delivered this year, and the trio recently announced an expanded deal starting in 2027.

At the same time, Alphabet has embedded its TPU-trained model, Gemini, throughout its products, including Google search. This has made them better and is driving query and revenue growth. With a powerful ad network and a big distribution advantage, Alphabet also has the ecosystem in place to really drive growth in its core business with the use of AI.

See also  Ford Motor Company vs. Toyota: Battle of the Hybrid EV StocksThe Hybrid EV Market Landscape

The high prices of electric vehicles (EVs) and concerns over charging infrastructure have led consumers to shift towards hybrids, a blend of gasoline and electric power. This trend has seen a significant surge in hybrid sales, including plug-ins, with a remarkable 65% increase in sales, outpacing the growth of pure electric vehicles.

Americans' adoption of hybrids is on the rise, with hybrids representing about 10% of all new car purchases in the U.S., surpassing the market share of pure electric vehicles.

Furthermore, as the Biden administration refines auto emissions standards to reduce the carbon footprint of passenger vehicles, manufacturers of plug-in hybrids and conventional gas-electric hybrids are poised to benefit from these regulations.

Ford Motor Company: A Deeper Dive

One of the key players in the hybrid EV market is Michigan-based Ford Motor Company (F), a company with a long history dating back to 1903. Ford specializes in a range of vehicles from trucks to luxury cars, currently boasting a market cap of $51.89 billion.

While Ford's stock saw a modest 14.5% increase over the past year, it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index. Despite being a long-term underperformer with a 10-year decline of nearly 15%, Ford reinstated its quarterly dividend in 2021, offering a dividend yield of 4.6%.

Ford's Financial Performance

Ford's financials have been a mixed bag, with the company reporting an EBIT loss of $4.7 billion in its electric vehicle segment in the past year. The company faced challenges like high labor costs due to strikes, leading to a total loss of $526 million in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year.

Despite these setbacks, Ford managed to beat earnings expectations, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 in the last quarter. The company's revenue of $43.21 billion also exceeded Wall Street estimates, indicating resilience in the face of operational challenges.

Toyota Motor Corporation: A Rival in the Race

On the other side of the spectrum is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), a formidable contender in the hybrid EV market. Toyota has established itself as a pioneer in hybrid technology with popular models like the Prius, commanding a significant market share globally.

While Toyota faces stiff competition from other automakers, the company's strong brand reputation and commitment to innovation position it as a strong player in the evolving landscape of hybrid EVs.

Comparing Ford and Toyota

Investors seeking exposure to the hybrid EV market must weigh the pros and cons of investing in Ford versus Toyota. While Ford offers a compelling dividend yield and attractive valuation metrics, Toyota's established presence and technological advancements make it a formidable competitor in the long run.

Toyota vs Ford: Battle of the HybridsThe Rise of Hybrid Dominance: A Tale of Two Automakers

With the most complete AI stack, Alphabet is a great AI stock to own for the long haul.

2. Amazon: The cloud computing leader

Amazon is the largest cloud provider, having created the entire infrastructure-as-a-service concept with Amazon Web Services (AWS). Like Alphabet, it also has a large custom chip business. While its chips are not on the same level as TPUs or Nvidia‘s graphics processing units (GPUs), they are solid bargain chips that are starting to gain traction. The company recently said that this was a $20 billion run-rate business growing triple digits, and noted that it would be a $50 billion business if it included the chips it deploys for internal use.

The company said its Trainium chips will save it tens of billions of dollars a year in capital expenditures (capex) and boost its operating margins given their cheaper cost to run inference. Meanwhile, Amazon has its own custom central processing units (CPUs), which should be a big advantage, as CPUs are set to be the next big AI infrastructure bottleneck with agentic AI. This all positions AWS very well for the future.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s e-commerce business continues to hum along. Its investments in AI and robotics are driving huge efficiencies that are leading to strong operating leverage. With the dual growth driver of cloud computing and e-commerce, Amazon is a stock to own for the long term.

Should you buy stock in Alphabet right now?

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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Broadcom. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.