Analysis of NASDAQ 100’s Performance
As March unfolded, investors braced themselves for a potential culmination in the NASDAQ 100 index. Utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) as a guiding beacon, projections painted a vivid picture of where the index might peak. The verdict? The index indeed hit a zenith at $18464 on March 21, tantalizingly close to the prognosticated ~$18615 mark.
However, the air of uncertainty looms large as the index has embarked on a downward trajectory, breaching two of the four pivotal warning levels for Bullish sentiment. Trading currently at $17980, the NASDAQ 100 finds itself at a crucial juncture, having shed the 20-day Simple Moving Average (20d SMA) while teetering atop the 50d SMA. The technical indicators (TIs) echo a somber refrain, signaling a sell-off.
Fears are further stoked by the index’s reluctance to dip below $17750. Should it breach this threshold, speculations of its peak in March heighten, paving the path towards the envisaged black W-4? target zone of $15900+/-200. The stage is set for a potential shift in fortunes.
Visualizing the Market Trends
The daily chart of the index, replete with EWP counts and technical indicators, paints a vivid tapestry of volatile market dynamics. The intertwining of these elements forms a visual narrative, hinting at a larger consolidation looming on the horizon. The intricate dance of the waves and indicators paints a picture of impending change.
An alternate scenario emerges from the pixelated landscape: an ending diagonal pattern, characterized by a rhythmic 3-3-3-3-3 count, signaling fatigue in the prevailing trend. A delicate balance is struck as the Bulls navigate this treacherous terrain, akin to tightrope walkers amidst a fiery spectacle of uncertainty.
Looking Toward the Future
Even as a potential last W-v beckons tantalizingly at $18615, the specter of black W-4? looms ominously beyond. The risk-reward ratio casts a shadow of doubt, with a 640p reward versus a 2000p risk looming large. An intricate dance unfolds, urging caution and foresight in the face of mounting uncertainty.
It is imperative to note that a breach beneath the October 2023 low would signify the denouement of the bull market, ushering in a new era fraught with unforeseen challenges and opportunities.