Interpreting Pre-Market Conditions
- Yesterday’s market saw a bullish inclination with the failure to surpass the previous day’s high. A sign of a looming bearish presence, preparing for a possible downward shift.
- Bullish momentum is waning, hovering well above the moving average, indicating a probable convergence with the moving average in the near future.
- Today is poised to disappoint the bullish camp as a bearish close seems imminent.
- Bears are geared up for a strong downward reversal today, eyeing a test of the moving average.
- The current rally seems constricted, signaling a trading range likelihood rather than a bearish trend.
- Bearish activity has curbed buying, a positive development, yet more sustained downward pressure is needed. A sequence of bearish bars closing at their lowest points would heighten the possibility of a secondary downward movement.
- Given the distance from the moving average, a rebound is expected upon testing it, attracting potential buyers.
- Looking ahead, sideways movement is probable on the daily chart, with possible testing of previous highs and lows, although this adjustment may take several months to unfold.
Anticipating Today’s Market Behavior
- The Emini is showing a 12-point upward trend in the overnight session.
- Globex market has been ensnared in a tight bull channel most of the session.
- A recent downward breakout by the bears occurred during the 8:30 AM EST report.
- The bears foresee the bull channel transitioning into a trading range, tilting the odds towards a bearish breakout for a potential secondary decline.
- Bears are optimistic for a robust bearish trend today, leading to a bearish reversal on the daily chart.
- Bulls are aiming to avert a bearish trend day for today.
- Although a bear trend during the U.S. session is plausible, a trading range opening seems more likely.
- Traders should brace for sideways movement upon the market’s opening. There is a mere 20% chance of a trend at the onset, with an overwhelming 80% likelihood of a trading range opening.
- Prudent traders are advised to wait for 6-12 bars before entering any trades, enhancing the probability of capturing either the day’s high or low while mitigating the risk of being ensnared in a failed breakout.
- The market’s opening range typically expands and contracts during mid-session, heightening volatility and potential losses. Traders may find it challenging to recover losses if the range contracts later in the day.
- Given that it is Friday, weekly support and resistance levels hold significance. Traders should anticipate a potential breakout towards the week’s end as market participants finalize weekly positions.
- The week’s midpoint at 5,534.25 might act as a focal point for testing today.
- In conclusion, traders are urged to exercise patience at the market’s outset and await clearer signals. Initial reversals are common before a successful swing trade materializes.
Reviewing Previous Emini Setups
Yesterday’s feasible stop-entry setups are highlighted here, with green and red arrows indicating buy and sell entry bars, respectively. Subscribers to various trading resources have access to detailed swing trade setups for informed decision-making.
The aim of these charts is to present an ‘Always In’ perspective, offering logical entry points for traders seeking consistent market positions. However, it’s crucial to note that most swing setups may not translate into actual trades, often leading to early exits, either with slight gains or minimal losses.
If the risk associated is excessive for one’s trading account, it’s advisable to wait for lower-risk trades or explore alternative markets such as the Micro Emini.