Ford F is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 20 cents and $39.34 billion, respectively.
Earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved down by a cent over the past seven days. However, the bottom line suggests year-over-year growth of 43%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s automotive revenues is pegged at $176 billion, suggesting a modest increase of roughly 1% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.49, calling for 37% year-over-year contraction. The consensus mark for 2027 EPS points to 23% growth from the projected 2025 levels.
Notably, Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once.
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Ford has an Earnings ESP of -26.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors at Play
The legacy automaker reported first-quarter deliveries of 457,315 vehicles, down 9% year over year. The decline suggests a broader slowdown across the auto industry as economic uncertainty, affordability concerns, elevated vehicle prices and high borrowing costs weigh on demand. Ford’s arch rival General Motors GM and Japan’s auto biggie Honda HMC also saw their U.S. deliveries fall around 10% and 4%, respectively.
Ford’s crown jewel — the F-Series trucks — saw volumes drop 16% to 159,901 units. Management partly attributed this to production disruptions linked to last year’s aluminum plant fires, which constrained supply. Even hybrids, which had been a strong growth driver, saw sales fall nearly 20%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the revenues from the Ford Blue segment is pegged at $20.7 billion, implying a decline from $21 billion reported in the first quarter of 2025.
Ford’s electric vehicle (EV) business also took a sharp hit, with sales plunging nearly 70% year over year to just 6,860 units, following the withdrawal of federal tax incentives and persistently high EV price tags. The consensus mark for Ford Model e unit’s adjusted EBIT is pegged at a loss of $1 billion, wider than $849 million incurred in the corresponding period of last year.
Ford Pro Intelligence paid software subscriptions grew approximately 29% year over year in the first quarter. That said, the consensus mark for revenues and adjusted EBIT from Ford Pro implies a year-over-year decline of 1% and 12%, respectively.
Ford’s Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of F have lost more than 5%, compared with General Motors’ decline of 4%. Meanwhile, Honda saw its share price dip 17% during the same timeframe.
Year-to-Date Price Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
F appears undervalued now. The company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.28, way lower than the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play F Stock Pre-Q1 Results
Ford heads into the first quarter with clear near-term pressure. Supply disruption from a Novelis aluminum plant fire remains a key overhang, with losses already heavy and more costs expected as the company sources alternative supply. On top of that, tariffs continue to weigh, adding another layer of margin pressure.
At the same time, Ford is in the middle of reshaping its EV strategy. This transition comes with sizable costs, including billions in special charges over the next couple of years. The bulk of the cash impact is still ahead, making the recovery timeline longer and more back-loaded.
That said, it’s not all negative. The company’s commercial segment, Ford Pro, remains a strong pillar. Software and subscription revenues are supporting solid double-digit margins. This business provides stability while other parts of the company undergo transition. Ford is also planting seeds beyond autos. Its push into energy, particularly battery storage, opens up a new growth avenue with potentially better margins over time.
Financially, Ford is well-positioned to handle the turbulence. Strong liquidity and a roughly 5% dividend yield offer a cushion for investors willing to wait.
Near-term risks still outweigh upside catalysts. Even if results hold up, a meaningful rebound seems unlikely. New investors may want to wait for better visibility, while existing holders can stay put for the long haul.
Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge Gains
Quantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.
While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.
Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA’s enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be “the next big thing” in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.
Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
General Motors Company (GM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.