Ford F is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 33 cents and $45.72 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved down by 2 cents over the past seven days. The bottom line suggests a year-over-year decline of 11%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 2% contraction from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
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For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s automotive revenues is pegged at $176 billion, suggesting a modest increase of roughly 1% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.62, implying 49% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for 2027 EPS points to 10% growth from the projected 2026 levels.
Notably, Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once.
Ford Motor Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Ford Motor Company Quote
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Ford has an Earnings ESP of -5.58% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors at Play
Ford’s second-quarter U.S. sales fell 10% year over year to 549,200 vehicles, primarily due to a supplier disruption affecting its highly profitable F-Series pickup trucks and continued weakness in the electric vehicle (EV) business. Sales of the F-Series, including the F-150, declined 11% as Ford worked to restore production after its key aluminum supplier resumed operations following last year’s fire. But even with the decline, the F-Series retained its position as America’s best-selling truck.
Lower wholesale volumes from all segments are expected to weigh on results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects wholesale shipments of 670,000 units for Ford Blue, 43,690 units for Model e and 421,000 units for Ford Pro, all below the year-ago levels, which is likely to have hurt revenue growth.
Ford’s pure EV sales dropped 40.7% during the quarter. Ford’s closest peer, General Motors GM, also saw EV sales decline 33% to 30,828 units in the United States. Meanwhile, Tesla TSLA posted a 25% year-over-year increase in second-quarter deliveries. Ford’s weak EV demand is expected to weigh on Ford’s Model e segment, although losses are projected to narrow. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for an adjusted EBIT loss of $1.26 billion, an improvement from the $1.33 billion loss reported a year ago.
Despite softer volumes, Ford’s cost-control initiatives and favorable product mix are expected to support profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford Blue’s adjusted EBIT stands at $1.24 billion, implying an 88.1% year-over-year increase.
Growth in software and connected services should also provide support. Ford Pro’s paid software subscriptions exceeded 900,000 in the first half of 2026, up roughly 20%, while cumulative BlueCruise hands-free driving hours crossed 12 million. However, Ford Pro’s adjusted EBIT is expected to decline 27.7% year over year to $1.68 billion, likely offsetting much of the strength in the Ford Blue segment.
Ford’s Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, shares of F have increased roughly 8%, outperforming the industry, General Motors and Tesla.
6-Month Price Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
F appears undervalued now. The company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.32, lower than the industry, General Motors and Tesla.
F’s P/S F12M Vs. TSLA & GM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play Ford Ahead of Earnings
Ford’s near-term outlook remains mixed, but its long-term investment case is still intact. While Ford Pro is expected to report lower earnings in the second quarter, it remains the company’s biggest profit engine. Management expects the segment to generate EBIT of $6.5-$7.5 billion in 2026, broadly in line with last year’s $6.84 billion, supported by healthy demand for commercial vehicles and growing software and service revenues.
The company’s focus on higher-margin trucks, large SUVs, off-road models and hybrids is also paying off by supporting profitability. Beyond its core auto business, Ford is building a new growth avenue through Ford Energy. Another positive is Ford’s financial strength. The company ended the first quarter with $22 billion in cash and $43.1 billion in total liquidity.
That said, investors should not overlook the challenges. The Model e EV business is still expected to lose $4-$4.5 billion this year, highlighting that profitability in electric vehicles remains some distance away. At the same time, tariffs and higher commodity costs, particularly aluminum, are expected to create roughly $2 billion of combined headwinds in 2026.
Overall, Ford looks more like a “Hold” than a “Buy” ahead of earnings. The long-term strategy remains promising, but investors should wait for greater clarity on EV losses, Ford Pro’s momentum and management’s updated outlook before becoming more aggressive.
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Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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